Pairwise and higher-order epistatic effects among somatic cancer mutations across oncogenesis.

Cancer occurs as a consequence of multiple somatic mutations that lead to uncontrolled cell growth. Mutual exclusivity and co-occurrence of mutations imply-but do not prove-that mutations exert synergistic or antagonistic epistatic effects on oncogenesis. Knowledge of these interactions, and the consequent trajectories of mutation and selection that lead to cancer has been a longstanding goal within the cancer research community. Recent research has revealed mutation rates and scaled selection coefficients for specific recurrent variants across many cancer types. However, there are no current methods to quantify the strength of selection incorporating pairwise and higher-order epistatic effects on selection within the trajectory of likely cancer genotoypes. Therefore, we have developed a continuous-time Markov chain model that enables the estimation of mutation origination and fixation (flux), dependent on somatic cancer genotype. Coupling this continuous-time Markov chain model with a deconvolution approach provides estimates of underlying mutation rates and selection across the trajectory of oncogenesis. We demonstrate computation of fluxes and selection coefficients in a somatic evolutionary model for the four most frequently variant driver genes (TP53, LRP1B, KRAS and STK11) from 565 cases of lung adenocarcinoma. Our analysis reveals multiple antagonistic epistatic effects that reduce the possible routes of oncogenesis, and inform cancer research regarding viable trajectories of somatic evolution whose progression could be forestalled by precision medicine. Synergistic epistatic effects are also identified, most notably in the somatic genotype TP53 LRP1B for mutations in the KRAS gene, and in somatic genotypes containing KRAS or TP53 mutations for mutations in the STK11 gene. Large positive fluxes of KRAS variants were driven by large selection coefficients, whereas the flux toward LRP1B mutations was substantially aided by a large mutation rate for this gene. The approach enables inference of the most likely routes of site-specific variant evolution and estimation of the strength of selection operating on each step along the route, a key component of what we need to know to develop and implement personalized cancer therapies.

Lineage-specific genes are clustered with HET-domain genes and respond to environmental and genetic manipulations regulating reproduction in Neurospora.

Lineage-specific genes (LSGs) have long been postulated to play roles in the establishment of genetic barriers to intercrossing and speciation. In the genome of Neurospora crassa, most of the 670 Neurospora LSGs that are aggregated adjacent to the telomeres are clustered with 61% of the HET-domain genes, some of which regulate self-recognition and define vegetative incompatibility groups. In contrast, the LSG-encoding proteins possess few to no domains that would help to identify potential functional roles. Possible functional roles of LSGs were further assessed by performing transcriptomic profiling in genetic mutants and in response to environmental alterations, as well as examining gene knockouts for phenotypes. Among the 342 LSGs that are dynamically expressed during both asexual and sexual phases, 64% were detectable on unusual carbon sources such as furfural, a wildfire-produced chemical that is a strong inducer of sexual development, and the structurally-related furan 5-hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF). Expression of a significant portion of the LSGs was sensitive to light and temperature, factors that also regulate the switch from asexual to sexual reproduction. Furthermore, expression of the LSGs was significantly affected in the knockouts of adv-1 and pp-1 that regulate hyphal communication, and expression of more than one quarter of the LSGs was affected by perturbation of the mating locus. These observations encouraged further investigation of the roles of clustered lineage-specific and HET-domain genes in ecology and reproduction regulation in Neurospora, especially the regulation of the switch from the asexual growth to sexual reproduction, in response to dramatic environmental conditions changes.

Seasonality of endemic COVID-19.

Successive waves of infection by SARS-CoV-2 have left little doubt that this virus will transition to an endemic disease. Foreknowledge of when to expect seasonal surges is crucial for healthcare and public health decision-making. However, the future seasonality of COVID-19 remains uncertain. Evaluating its seasonality is complicated due to the limited years of SARS-CoV-2 circulation, pandemic dynamics, and varied interventions. In this study, we project the expected endemic seasonality by employing a phylogenetic ancestral and descendant state approach that leverages long-term data on the incidence of circulating HCoV coronaviruses. Our projections indicate asynchronous surges of SARS-CoV-2 across different locations in the northern hemisphere, occurring between October and January in New York and between January and March in Yamagata, Japan. This knowledge of spatiotemporal surges leads to medical preparedness and enables the implementation of targeted public health interventions to mitigate COVID-19 transmission.IMPORTANCEThe seasonality of COVID-19 is important for effective healthcare and public health decision-making. Previous waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections have indicated that the virus will likely persist as an endemic pathogen with distinct surges. However, the timing and patterns of potentially seasonal surges remain uncertain, rendering effective public health policies uninformed and in danger of poorly anticipating opportunities for intervention, such as well-timed booster vaccination drives. Applying an evolutionary approach to long-term data on closely related circulating coronaviruses, our research provides projections of seasonal surges that should be expected at major temperate population centers. These projections enable local public health efforts that are tailored to expected surges at specific locales or regions. This knowledge is crucial for enhancing medical preparedness and facilitating the implementation of targeted public health interventions.

Origins of lineage-specific elements via gene duplication, relocation, and regional rearrangement in Neurospora crassa.

The origin of new genes has long been a central interest of evolutionary biologists. However, their novelty means that they evade reconstruction by the classical tools of evolutionary modelling. This evasion of deep ancestral investigation necessitates intensive study of model species within well-sampled, recently diversified, clades. One such clade is the model genus Neurospora, members of which lack recent gene duplications. Several Neurospora species are comprehensively characterized organisms apt for studying the evolution of lineage-specific genes (LSGs). Using gene synteny, we documented that 78% of Neurospora LSG clusters are located adjacent to the telomeres featuring extensive tracts of non-coding DNA and duplicated genes. Here, we report several instances of LSGs that are likely from regional rearrangements and potentially from gene rebirth. To broadly investigate the functions of LSGs, we assembled transcriptomics data from 68 experimental data points and identified co-regulatory modules using Weighted Gene Correlation Network Analysis, revealing that LSGs are widely but peripherally involved in known regulatory machinery for diverse functions. The ancestral status of the LSG mas-1, a gene with roles in cell-wall integrity and cellular sensitivity to antifungal toxins, was investigated in detail alongside its genomic neighbours, indicating that it arose from an ancient lysophospholipase precursor that is ubiquitous in lineages of the Sordariomycetes. Our discoveries illuminate a "rummage region" in the N. crassa genome that enables the formation of new genes and functions to arise via gene duplication and relocation, followed by fast mutation and recombination facilitated by sequence repeats and unconstrained non-coding sequences.

The Sordariomycetes: an expanding resource with Big Data for mining in evolutionary genomics and transcriptomics.

Advances in genomics and transcriptomics accompanying the rapid accumulation of omics data have provided new tools that have transformed and expanded the traditional concepts of model fungi. Evolutionary genomics and transcriptomics have flourished with the use of classical and newer fungal models that facilitate the study of diverse topics encompassing fungal biology and development. Technological advances have also created the opportunity to obtain and mine large datasets. One such continuously growing dataset is that of the Sordariomycetes, which exhibit a richness of species, ecological diversity, economic importance, and a profound research history on amenable models. Currently, 3,574 species of this class have been sequenced, comprising nearly one-third of the available ascomycete genomes. Among these genomes, multiple representatives of the model genera Fusarium, Neurospora, and Trichoderma are present. In this review, we examine recently published studies and data on the Sordariomycetes that have contributed novel insights to the field of fungal evolution via integrative analyses of the genetic, pathogenic, and other biological characteristics of the fungi. Some of these studies applied ancestral state analysis of gene expression among divergent lineages to infer regulatory network models, identify key genetic elements in fungal sexual development, and investigate the regulation of conidial germination and secondary metabolism. Such multispecies investigations address challenges in the study of fungal evolutionary genomics derived from studies that are often based on limited model genomes and that primarily focus on the aspects of biology driven by knowledge drawn from a few model species. Rapidly accumulating information and expanding capabilities for systems biological analysis of Big Data are setting the stage for the expansion of the concept of model systems from unitary taxonomic species/genera to inclusive clusters of well-studied models that can facilitate both the in-depth study of specific lineages and also investigation of trait diversity across lineages. The Sordariomycetes class, in particular, offers abundant omics data and a large and active global research community. As such, the Sordariomycetes can form a core omics clade, providing a blueprint for the expansion of our knowledge of evolution at the genomic scale in the exciting era of Big Data and artificial intelligence, and serving as a reference for the future analysis of different taxonomic levels within the fungal kingdom.

Infection with alternate frequencies of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine boosting for patients undergoing antineoplastic cancer treatments.

Patients undergoing antineoplastic therapies often exhibit reduced immune response to COVID-19 vaccination, necessitating assessment of alternate booster vaccination frequencies. However, data on reinfection risks to guide clinical decision making are limited. Here, we quantified reinfection risks for patients undergoing distinct antineoplastic therapies, given alternative frequencies of boosting with Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2. Integrating antibody data following vaccination with long-term antibody data from other coronaviruses in an evolutionary framework, we estimated infection probabilities based on antibody levels and calculated cumulative probabilities of breakthrough infection for alternate booster schedules over 2 years. Annual boosting reduced risks for targeted or hormonal treatments, immunotherapy, and chemotherapy-immunotherapy combinations similarly to the general population. Patients receiving no treatment or chemotherapy exhibited higher risks, suggesting that accelerated vaccination schedules should be considered. Patients treated with rituximab therapy presented the highest infection risk, suggesting that a combination of frequent boosting and additional interventions may be warranted for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Infection by SARS-CoV-2 with alternate frequencies of mRNA vaccine boosting.

One of the most consequential unknowns of the COVID-19 pandemic is the frequency at which vaccine boosting provides sufficient protection from infection. We quantified the statistical likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following different boosting schedules with messenger RNA (mRNA)-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech). We integrated anti-Spike IgG antibody optical densities with profiles of the waning of antibodies and corresponding probabilities of infection associated with coronavirus endemic transmission. Projecting antibody levels over time given boosting every 6 months, 1, 1.5, 2, or 3 years yielded respective probabilities of fending off infection over a 6-year span of >93%, 75%, 55%, 40%, and 24% (mRNA-1273) and >89%, 69%, 49%, 36%, and 23% (BNT162b2). Delaying the administration of updated boosters has bleak repercussions. It increases the probability of individual infection by SARS-CoV-2, and correspondingly, ongoing disease spread, prevalence, morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality. Instituting regular, population-wide booster vaccination updated to predominant variants has the potential to substantially forestall-and with global, widespread uptake, eliminate-COVID-19.

Comparative Transcriptomics of Fusarium graminearum and Magnaporthe oryzae Spore Germination Leading up To Infection.

For fungal plant pathogens, the germinating spore provides the first interaction with the host. Spore germlings move across the plant surface and use diverse penetration strategies for ingress into plant surfaces. Penetration strategies include pressurized melanized appressoria, which facilitate physically punching through the plant cuticle, and nonmelanized appressoria, which penetrate with the help of enzymes or cuticular damage to breach the plant surface. Two well-studied plant pathogens, Fusarium graminearum and Magnaporthe oryzae, are typical of these two modes of penetration. We applied comparative transcriptomics to Fusarium graminearum and Magnaporthe oryzae to characterize the genetic programming of the early host-pathogen interface. Four sequential stages of development following spore localization on the plant surface, from spore swelling to appressorium formation, were sampled for each species on culture medium and on barley sheaths, and transcriptomic analyses were performed. Gene expression in the prepenetration stages in both species and under both conditions was similar. In contrast, gene expression in the final stage was strongly influenced by the environment. Appressorium formation involved the greatest number of differentially expressed genes. Laser-dissection microscopy was used to perform detailed transcriptomics of initial infection points by F. graminearum. These analyses revealed new and important aspects of early fungal ingress in this species. Expression of the trichothecene genes involved in biosynthesis of deoxynivalenol by F. graminearum implies that toxisomes are not fully functional until after penetration and indicates that deoxynivalenol is not essential for penetration under our conditions. The use of comparative gene expression of divergent fungi promises to advance highly effective targets for antifungal strategies. IMPORTANCE Fusarium graminearum and Magnaporthe oryzae are two of the most important pathogens of cereal grains worldwide. Despite years of research, strong host resistance has not been identified for F. graminearum, so other methods of control are essential. The pathogen takes advantage of multiple entry points to infect the host, including breaches in the florets due to senescence of flower parts and penetration of the weakened trichome bases to breach the epidermis. In contrast, M. oryzae directly punctures leaves that it infects, and resistant cultivars have been characterized. The threat of either pathogen causing a major disease outbreak is ever present. Comparative transcriptomics demonstrated its potential to reveal novel and effective disease prevention strategies that affect the initial stages of disease. Shedding light on the basis of this diversity of infection strategies will result in development of increasingly specific control strategies.

Estimation of Neutral Mutation Rates and Quantification of Somatic Variant Selection Using cancereffectsizeR.

Somatic nucleotide mutations can contribute to cancer cell survival, proliferation, and pathogenesis. Although research has focused on identifying which mutations are "drivers" versus "passengers," quantifying the proliferative effects of specific variants within clinically relevant contexts could reveal novel aspects of cancer biology. To enable researchers to estimate these cancer effects, we developed cancereffectsizeR, an R package that organizes somatic variant data, facilitates mutational signature analysis, calculates site-specific mutation rates, and tests models of selection. Built-in models support effect estimation from single nucleotides to genes. Users can also estimate epistatic effects between paired sets of variants, or design and test custom models. The utility of cancer effect was validated by showing in a pan-cancer dataset that somatic variants classified as likely pathogenic or pathogenic in ClinVar exhibit substantially higher effects than most other variants. Indeed, cancer effect was a better predictor of pathogenic status than variant prevalence or functional impact scores. In addition, the application of this approach toward pairwise epistasis in lung adenocarcinoma showed that driver mutations in BRAF, EGFR, or KRAS typically reduce selection for alterations in the other two genes. Companion reference data packages support analyses using the hg19 or hg38 human genome builds, and a reference data builder enables use with any species or custom genome build with available genomic and transcriptomic data. A reference manual, tutorial, and public source code repository are available at https://townsend-lab-yale.github.io/cancereffectsizeR. Comprehensive estimation of cancer effects of somatic mutations can provide insights into oncogenic trajectories, with implications for cancer prognosis and treatment. SIGNIFICANCE: An R package provides streamlined, customizable estimation of underlying nucleotide mutation rates and of the oncogenic and epistatic effects of mutations in cancer cohorts.

Placing human gene families into their evolutionary context.

Following the draft sequence of the first human genome over 20 years ago, we have achieved unprecedented insights into the rules governing its evolution, often with direct translational relevance to specific diseases. However, staggering sequence complexity has also challenged the development of a more comprehensive understanding of human genome biology. In this context, interspecific genomic studies between humans and other animals have played a critical role in our efforts to decode human gene families. In this review, we focus on how the rapid surge of genome sequencing of both model and non-model organisms now provides a broader comparative framework poised to empower novel discoveries. We begin with a general overview of how comparative approaches are essential for understanding gene family evolution in the human genome, followed by a discussion of analyses of gene expression. We show how homology can provide insights into the genes and gene families associated with immune response, cancer biology, vision, chemosensation, and metabolism, by revealing similarity in processes among distant species. We then explain methodological tools that provide critical advances and show the limitations of common approaches. We conclude with a discussion of how these investigations position us to gain fundamental insights into the evolution of gene families among living organisms in general. We hope that our review catalyzes additional excitement and research on the emerging field of comparative genomics, while aiding the placement of the human genome into its existentially evolutionary context.

Clone Phylogenetics Reveals Metastatic Tumor Migrations, Maps, and Models.

Dispersal routes of metastatic cells are not medically detected or even visible. A molecular evolutionary analysis of tumor variation provides a way to retrospectively infer metastatic migration histories and answer questions such as whether the majority of metastases are seeded from clones within primary tumors or seeded from clones within pre-existing metastases, as well as whether the evolution of metastases is generally consistent with any proposed models. We seek answers to these fundamental questions through a systematic patient-centric retrospective analysis that maps the dynamic evolutionary history of tumor cell migrations in many cancers. We analyzed tumor genetic heterogeneity in 51 cancer patients and found that most metastatic migration histories were best described by a hybrid of models of metastatic tumor evolution. Synthesizing across metastatic migration histories, we found new tumor seedings arising from clones of pre-existing metastases as often as they arose from clones from primary tumors. There were also many clone exchanges between the source and recipient tumors. Therefore, a molecular phylogenetic analysis of tumor variation provides a retrospective glimpse into general patterns of metastatic migration histories in cancer patients.

Quarantine and serial testing for variants of SARS-CoV-2 with benefits of vaccination and boosting on consequent control of COVID-19.

Quarantine and serial testing strategies for a disease depend principally on its incubation period and infectiousness profile. In the context of COVID-19, these primary public health tools must be modulated with successive SARS CoV-2 variants of concern that dominate transmission. Our analysis shows that (1) vaccination status of an individual makes little difference to the determination of the appropriate quarantine duration of an infected case, whereas vaccination coverage of the population can have a substantial effect on this duration, (2) successive variants can challenge disease control efforts by their earlier and increased transmission in the disease time course relative to prior variants, and (3) sufficient vaccine boosting of a population substantially aids the suppression of local transmission through frequent serial testing. For instance, with Omicron, increasing immunity through vaccination and boosters-for instance with 100% of the population is fully immunized and at least 24% having received a third dose-can reduce quarantine durations by up to 2 d, as well as substantially aid in the repression of outbreaks through serial testing. Our analysis highlights the paramount importance of maintaining high population immunity, preferably by booster uptake, and the role of quarantine and testing to control the spread of SARS CoV-2.

Testing for COVID-19 is Much More Effective When Performed Immediately Prior to Social Mixing.

Objective: To quantify the utility of RT-PCR and rapid antigen tests in preventing post-arrival transmission based on timing of the pre-departure test. Methods: We derived analytical expressions to compute post-arrival transmission when no test is performed, and when either an RT-PCR or any of 18 rapid antigen tests is performed at specified times before arrival. We determined the diagnostic sensitivity of the rapid antigen tests by propagating their RT-PCR percent positive agreement onto known RT-PCR diagnostic sensitivity. Results: Depending on the rapid antigen test used, conducting a rapid antigen test immediately before departure reduces post-arrival transmission between 37.4% (95% CrI: 28.2%-40.7%) and 46.7% (95% CrI:40.0%-49.3%), compared to a 31.1% (95% CrI: 26.3%-33.5%) reduction using an RT-PCR 12 h before arrival. Performance of each rapid antigen test differed by diagnostic sensitivity over the course of disease. However, these differences were smaller than those engendered by testing too early. Conclusion: Testing closer to arrival-ideally on the day of arrival-is more effective at reducing post-arrival transmission than testing earlier. Rapid antigen tests perform the best in this application due to their short turnaround time.

Differential Expression of Cell Wall Remodeling Genes Is Part of the Dynamic Phase-Specific Transcriptional Program of Conidial Germination of Trichoderma asperelloides.

The nature of saprophytic and mycoparasitic hyphal growth of Trichoderma spp. has been studied extensively, yet its initiation via conidial germination in this genus is less well understood. Using near-synchronous germinating cultures of Trichoderma asperelloides, we followed the morphological progression from dormant conidia to initial polar growth to germling formation and to evidence for first branching. We found that the stage-specific transcriptional profile of T. asperelloides is one of the most dynamic described to date: transcript abundance of over 5000 genes-comprising approximately half of the annotated genome-was unremittingly reduced in the transition from dormancy to polar growth. Conversely, after the onset of germination, the transcript abundance of approximately a quarter of the genome was unremittingly elevated during the transition from elongation to initial branching. These changes are a testimony to the substantial developmental events that accompany germination. Bayesian network analysis identified several chitinase- and glucanase-encoding genes as active transcriptional hubs during germination. Furthermore, the expression of specific members of the chitin synthase and glucan elongase families was significantly increased during germination in the presence of Rhizoctonia solani-a known host of the mycoparasite-indicating that host recognition can occur during the early stages of mycoparasite development.

APOBEC mutagenesis and selection for NFE2L2 contribute to the origin of lung squamous-cell carcinoma.

Lung squamous-cell carcinoma originates as a consequence of oncogenic molecular variants arising from diverse mutagenic processes such as tobacco, defective homologous recombination, aging, and cytidine deamination by APOBEC proteins. Only some of the many variants generated by these processes actually contribute to tumorigenesis. Therefore, molecular investigation of mutagenic processes such as cytidine deamination by APOBEC should also determine whether the mutations produced by these processes contribute substantially to the growth and survival of cancer. Here, we determine the processes that gave rise to mutations of 681 lung squamous-cell carcinomas, and quantify the probability that each mutation was the product of each process. We then calculate the contribution of each mutation to increases in cellular proliferation and survival. We performed in vitro experiments to determine cytidine deamination activity of APOBEC3B against oligonucleotides corresponding with genomic sequences that give rise to variants of high cancer effect size. The largest APOBEC-related cancer effects are attributable to mutations in PIK3CA and NFE2L2. We demonstrate that APOBEC effectively deaminates NFE2L2 at the locations that confer high cancer effect. Overall, we demonstrate that APOBEC activity can lead to mutations in NFE2L2 that have large contributions to cancer cell growth and survival, and that NFE2L2 is an attractive potential target for therapeutic intervention.

Comparative analyses of eighteen rapid antigen tests and RT-PCR for COVID-19 quarantine and surveillance-based isolation.

Background: Rapid antigen (RA) tests are being increasingly employed to detect SARS-CoV-2 infections in quarantine and surveillance. Prior research has focused on RT-PCR testing, a single RA test, or generic diagnostic characteristics of RA tests in assessing testing strategies. Methods: We have conducted a comparative analysis of the post-quarantine transmission, the effective reproduction number during serial testing, and the false-positive rates for 18 RA tests with emergency use authorization from The United States Food and Drug Administration and an RT-PCR test. To quantify the extent of transmission, we developed an analytical mathematical framework informed by COVID-19 infectiousness, test specificity, and temporal diagnostic sensitivity data. Results: We demonstrate that the relative effectiveness of RA tests and RT-PCR testing in reducing post-quarantine transmission depends on the quarantine duration and the turnaround time of testing results. For quarantines of two days or shorter, conducting a RA test on exit from quarantine reduces onward transmission more than a single RT-PCR test (with a 24-h delay) conducted upon exit. Applied to a complementary approach of performing serial testing at a specified frequency paired with isolation of positives, we have shown that RA tests outperform RT-PCR with a 24-h delay. The results from our modeling framework are consistent with quarantine and serial testing data collected from a remote industry setting. Conclusions: These RA test-specific results are an important component of the tool set for policy decision-making, and demonstrate that judicious selection of an appropriate RA test can supply a viable alternative to RT-PCR in efforts to control the spread of disease.

Previous research on SARS-CoV-2 infection has determined optimal timing for testing in quarantine and the utility of different frequencies of testing for infection surveillance using RT-PCR and generalized rapid antigen tests. However, these strategies can depend on the specific rapid antigen test used. By examining 18 rapid antigen tests, we demonstrate that a single rapid antigen test performs better than RT-PCR when quarantines are two days or less in duration. In the context of infection surveillance, the ability of a rapid antigen test to provide results quickly counteracts its lower sensitivity with potentially more false positives. Our findings indicate that rapid antigen tests can be a suitable alternative to RT-PCR for application in quarantine and infection surveillance.

The durability of natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity against future infection by SARS-CoV-2.

The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations to breakthrough infection, and the optimal timings of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following vaccination by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited by each vaccine relative to natural infection. We estimated typical trajectories of waning and corresponding infection probabilities, providing the distribution of times to breakthrough infection for each vaccine under endemic conditions. Peak antibody levels elicited by messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2 exceeded that of natural infection and are expected to typically yield more durable protection against breakthrough infections (median 29.6 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 10.9 mo to 7.9 y) than natural infection (median 21.5 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 3.5 mo to 7.1 y). Relative to mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2, viral vector vaccines ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S exhibit similar peak anti-S IgG antibody responses to that from natural infection and are projected to yield lower, shorter-term protection against breakthrough infection (median 22.4 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 4.3 mo to 7.2 y; and median 20.5 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 2.6 mo to 7.0 y; respectively). These results leverage the tools from evolutionary biology to provide a quantitative basis for otherwise unknown parameters that are fundamental to public health policy decision-making.

A phylogenetic approach to study the evolution of somatic mutational processes in cancer.

Cancer cell genomes change continuously due to mutations, and mutational processes change over time in patients, leaving dynamic signatures in the accumulated genomic variation in tumors. Many computational methods detect the relative activities of known mutation signatures. However, these methods may produce erroneous signatures when applied to individual branches in cancer cell phylogenies. Here, we show that the inference of branch-specific mutational signatures can be improved through a joint analysis of the collections of mutations mapped on proximal branches of the cancer cell phylogeny. This approach reduces the false-positive discovery rate of branch-specific signatures and can sometimes detect faint signatures. An analysis of empirical data from 61 lung cancer patients supports trends based on computer-simulated datasets for which the correct signatures are known. In lung cancer somatic variation, we detect a decreasing trend of smoking-related mutational processes over time and an increasing influence of APOBEC mutational processes as the tumor evolution progresses. These analyses also reveal patterns of conservation and divergence of mutational processes in cell lineages within patients.

Attribution of Cancer Origins to Endogenous, Exogenous, and Preventable Mutational Processes.

Mutational processes in tumors create distinctive patterns of mutations, composed of neutral "passenger" mutations and oncogenic drivers that have quantifiable effects on the proliferation and survival of cancer cell lineages. Increases in proliferation and survival are mediated by natural selection, which can be quantified by comparing the frequency at which we detect substitutions to the frequency at which we expect to detect substitutions assuming neutrality. Most of the variants detectable with whole-exome sequencing in tumors are neutral or nearly neutral in effect, and thus the processes generating the majority of mutations may not be the primary sources of the tumorigenic mutations. Across 24 cancer types, we identify the contributions of mutational processes to each oncogenic variant and quantify the degree to which each process contributes to tumorigenesis. We demonstrate that the origination of variants driving melanomas and lung cancers is predominantly attributable to the preventable, exogenous mutational processes associated with ultraviolet light and tobacco exposure, respectively, whereas the origination of selected variants in gliomas and prostate adenocarcinomas is largely attributable to endogenous processes associated with aging. Preventable mutations associated with pathogen exposure and apolipoprotein B mRNA-editing enzyme activity account for a large proportion of the cancer effect within head-and-neck, bladder, cervical, and breast cancers. These attributions complement epidemiological approaches-revealing the burden of cancer driven by single-nucleotide variants caused by either endogenous or exogenous, nonpreventable, or preventable processes, and crucially inform public health strategies.